It's Saturday. Everyone's resigned to the fact that we've got a new first minister. And yet the Liberal Democrats are still plugging away.After ruining both the prospect of a Lib-Lab coalition and a Rainbow Coalition they are now focusing on tearing themsevlves apart. Today, they meet for a special conference. And yet the only remaining chance of a rainbow is in one of Peter Black's increasingly repulsive ties. How many Lib Dem activists, I wonder, would like to tighten that particular knot?But amidst the recriminations, don't you think we have a right to know who voted against the triple alliance on Wednesday night? I'm told there were 18 people eligible to vote in the national executive ballot which sent the rainbow coalition crashing back to earth. But Lib Dem members never got a...
After weeks of haggling, bitching, briefing, capitulating and then recapitulating it's come down to this: another minority Labour government.Rhodri Morgan will today resume the post of first minister. And he'll do it with only 25 of the 60 available votes.Despite all the rhetoric of the election campaign, Wales has neither a 'stable government' nor an 'agreed policy programme'. We did our bit - the electorate went to the polls with a slightly increased turnout and gave their verdict. But the politicians have, quite simply, failed to deliver. So, what next?Well, fresh from failing to agree even to disagree gracefully, they will now stall and stutter for weeks and months to come. There's a lack of trust and general sense of deflation in Cardiff Bay, which is just what you need at the start...
You never quite know what you're going to get with Lib Dem activists.Yesterday, their national executive turned its back on a coalition document which would have given them PR in local government and the free toothbrushes they so desperately craved. You can now see a copy of that document HERE.But it seems some of them haven't give up the fight. They're hoping to call a special conference on Saturday after all. I'm told activists are collecting signatures to force a meeting.So could there be a final twist in this post-election political farce?Maybe. But it will most likely be a twist of the knife in their leader's back - a public stage upon which to to complete the extraordinary self-destruction of the Liberal Democrats over the past three...
It's no secret that the Lib Dems' six AMs don't get on. Now, they've got no friends in any of the other parties either. A week after resoundingly turning their back on Labour, they have dealt a similar blow to the prospect of a Plaid-led rainbow coalition.This is, quite simply, bizarre. The very same personnel that voted last week to end negotiations with Labour have now chosen opposition over government. This is despite the fact that none of the three groups which made up last night's meeting actually voted against a rainbow coalition.The negotiating team and the AMs both voted in favour, but the national executive was a dead heat. Without a majority in all three groups, the Lib Dems could not authorise a special conference. In the end, the deal which promised to revolutionise the way...
Two key meetings tonight, both in Llandrindod. The Conservatives' management board are meeting in the 1930s Metropole Hotel - I'm told it's a shoo in. Meanwhile the Lib Dem National Executive is getting together in the Media Resource Centre. This is much more difficult to call. Even though they voted by 9-3 to suspend talks with Labour last week, a number of Lib Dem legends and Peter Black are thought to be against teaming up with Plaid and the Tories. Activists were out in numbers - thought to be at least 12 - to make their opposition known. "What do we want?""Constitutional reform and the introduction of a single transferable voting system in local government," they shouted."When do we want it?""After a majority vote in the national executive, a special conference in an unspecified...
More details are emerging of the deal Plaid turned down to concentrate solely on forming a rainbow coalition. It is thought Labour were offering a referendum on a Scottish-style parliament, a review of the Barnett formula AND a new Welsh Language Act (in some form). I also understand that at the time Plaid voted to sever talks with Labour, Rhodri Morgan's team were perusing the very same document on health reconfiguration which had been submitted to the Lib Dems and the Tories. Even though Labour had earlier rejected the idea of a moratorium on the reconfiguration programme, the four AMs who voted against suspending negotiations clearly thought there was still hope of reaching an agreement on this and other key issues.Nevertheless, the other Plaid AMs decided that talks were not...
Bugger. You just knew it was going to happen, didn't you? After all that hype about it being the most closely fought election ever, it was inevitable that the result itself would conspire to be as clear as mud (mixed up with a bit of boot polish for good measure).Lib Dems: The big losers of the night. Sure, they consolidated in certain areas and have a few second-placed platforms to build on for next time. But for this strategy to work, it had to be accompanied by list gains. It wasn't. To win no additional seats has to be seen as a failure. South Wales West AM Peter Black has already written on his blog that "it is clear we now need a fresh approach and a radical re-think as to where we are going and how we sell ourselves, our policies and our philosophy to the Welsh electorate." Sounds...
Peter Black, newly re-elected Lib Dem AM for South Wales West, knows exactly what he is doing.Yesterday's blog post got the ball rolling. 'It is clear that we now need a fresh approach and a radical re-think,' he wrote. For 'radical re-think' read 'leadership contest,' I responded. He had opportunities to deny this both on my blog and on Radio Wales. He chose not to do so.And today, he's at it again: 'My instincts are that the Welsh Liberal Democrats do not have to be the deal-makers in this process. We have our own issues to sort out first around where we are going as a party and what sort of image we project to the Welsh public.'It's now acknowledged that the leaders of Lib Dem councils are not keen on a Lab-Lib pact. Their long-term strategy is based on undermining Labour, not propping...
At the moment, all the talk coming from the leaders of the four parties is about securing a stable government.But, let's be frank. It ain't going to happen.Take the prospect of a Lab-Lib pact. Rhodri says it's an 'inedible' choice. Great start - like telling your date she's a minger before you've even got to the main course. Meanwhile, a 'senior Labour source' says, "we should try to do a deal with the Liberal Democrats. Our philosophy towards them should be, ‘hug them close and strangle them slowly’." There is something very disturbing about that philosophy, and it does not bode well for a future stable government.Take the prospect of a Plaid-Labour pact. Rhodri says it's an 'unpalatable' choice. But is it really? Incest or perhaps even watching golf are unpalatable choices. Rhodri...
Without doubt, the most common criticism of politicians is that they allow torrents of unmitigated tosh to spew forth from their mouths at every available opportunity. Normal people can tell that they are talking complete rubbish. For some strange reason, politicians cannot.This election campaign was no different.Here's my handy guide to what they said, as opposed to what actually happened:Rhodri Morgan (Labour)"If we don’t get our vote out and the three minor parties do, a Tory-led coalition will trundle Wales backwards as a country at a rate of knots.This election is the choice between a return to a grim Tory past and a bright Labour future.This election is about that stark choice between seeing the dole queues continue to get shorter and shorter under Labour or risking a return to...
Keep a keen eye on airport departure lounges over the next few weeks. The assembly has a further 22 days to elect a first minister, which would take them conveniently into their Whitsun holidays.In the meantime, nobody except Mike German is returning Rhodri's calls. So Wales goes on without a government. And the longer it goes unresolved, the more people are talking about Labour going it alone with Plaid or the Lib Dems backing them up in a confidence and supply type arrangement.This, we are endlessly told, is the New Zealand model. They even sent over a cabinet minister to give Rhodri some tips on how it's all supposed to work.But hang on a minute, why are we taking lessons from a country that's only got one vowel sound?Their election was won narrowly by the Labour party, but only after...
Remember back before the election, when Rhodri Morgan said he'd "leave the stage" if he thought Labour had suffered a defeat? Then, like spoons to a chocolate fudge cake in fat camp, we all leapt in with wild estimations about what that might constitute.Most people settled on 24 seats. Yeah, that would be a bad enough result all right.But.He didn't say anything about number of seats. Instead, what he talked about was translating votes into a Labour government: "If they want Labour to continue, then Labour voters have got to come out and vote Labour - that's the key message."So, could it still be a 'defeat' if the other three parties come together to form a rainbow coalition?Could it still be a 'defeat' if he can't persuade one of the other parties to join a formal coalition?Could it...
After yesterday's Labour group meeting, Rhodri Morgan conceded that he'd knocked on a few doors but nobody would come out and play.Meanwhile, Ieuan Wyn Jones might just be fastening his velcro straps in readiness to pounce.Lib Dem leader Mike German is bouncing around eagerly, waiting to share his limited selection of toys. And Tory chief Nick Bourne is carefully guarding his Transformer set, in case IWJ can supply him with the batteries to fire it up.Plaid Cymru group meeting: today, 10am.If Ieuan Wyn Jones wants the top job, he can have it.By the way, they say imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. This new blog doesn't seem to know who it wants to copy:)Also, I'll be on AM/PM (BBC 2) at lunchtime to talk about the etymology of the word 'fudge' coalitions and stuff.UPDATE: Plaid...
The Lib Dems' National Executive has voted to suspend talks with Labour and concentrate solely on discussions with Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives on forming a rainbow coalition.The Conservatives have also confirmed that they are negotiating with Plaid Cymru with a view to an official agreement which would see Tory AMs joining the cabinet under Ieuan Wyn Jones. This development gives real momentum to the prospect of a non-Labour government in the assembly for the first time in its history. Labour intend to put forward Rhodri Morgan as first minister whatever the outcome of the other parties' negotiations. But a Plaid deal with the Lib Dems and the Tories would see Ieuan Wyn Jones mirror the achievement of his Scottish counterpart and become Wales' first nationalist leader. [In a...
The reason Ieuan Wyn Jones might just be sworn in as first minister by the end of the month is that there is actually a remarkable amount of overlap between the parties looking to form a rainbow coalition. I know because I read the bloody manifestos. And if the Lib Dems ever dare to produce a document as long and tedious as that again I'll ram it up their letter box:)Beyond the really important issues, like the free laptops, lightbulbs and toothbrushes, there is agreement (or wiggle room) in a number of key areas. Whether it's a new Welsh language act, moves towards a referendum on further devolution, PR in local government or making the green switch, the parties have much in common. And now that talks are underway, they'll finally be able to stop pretending they are all so incredibly...
Something very strange happened to me yesterday.I was sitting in the pub watching the FA cup. (not strange)Drinking coke. (not strange)My mate shouted "C'mon United, get into those STUPID CHEL-SAY TU-WATS". Very loudly. The pub chuckled. (not strange)And then, a bunch of replica shirt wearing fellows behind me started discussing coalitions. (very strange)Would a triple alliance have any legitimacy, they wondered. After all, Labour is by far the largest party.I can't quite describe how excited I felt. This has never happened before. Up until now, the only people I've ever heard talking about Welsh politics have been geeks or opportunists (otherwise known as the media and political elite).Whether or not we do eventually get a rainbow coalition government, the prospect of one has certainly...
Perhaps not quite yet. But soon.A new administration in Cardiff Bay will need a new opposition. Why should Rhodri hang around for two years to size up against a government he'll never face in an election. Why should Labour AMs let him? All the signs are that they won't. And Carwyn Jones' status as Leader in waiting has never looked more precarious. He's considered to be far too chummy with the nationalists to provide the bite Labour would require in opposition.So who might it be then - Jane Davidson, Andrew Davies, Edwina Hart? Or does someone else have their eyes on the prize? Let's see...Who was straight out of the blocks, doing the tricky interviews in the immediate aftermath of the election?Who was calling for the Labour party to reflect and change?Who was quoted in the Western Mail...
After two years waiting, I have finally watched City of the Lost Children. And I didn't understand a minute of it. An awful lot of Welsh people probably feel the same way. We went to the polls almost three weeks ago and yet most voters will still be none the wiser as to what's going on.The film is a sort of dystopian fantasy in which people pull out each other's eyeballs and eat them. Not dissimilar, some Plaid members would say, to life under a rainbow coalition.By the end of play today, it should be almost certain who'll be forming a government as the next first minister of Wales. Barring a miracle, it'll be Ieuan Wyn Jones.This will make some Plaid supporters very very cross. Back in December I wrote that "most Plaid AMs would rather cut off their right leg, put it in a mincer and eat...
While there's little chance of a scoreline like that in football at the moment, we are at least pushing ahead with the business of running our country.Seems that the chaps up north are too busy arguing over the size of each other's cabers to get on with electing a presiding officer, so they've postponed it until next week.In the Senedd, this afternoon, Dafydd Elis Thomas will win the top job, with Labour's Rosemary Butler set to be his deputy.I'm off to witness the mêlée and to see if I can detect any hints from the body language of the party leaders. It's rumoured that Mike German will sacrifice his usual seat on the right side of the chamber to sit on Rhodri Morgan's lap instead.UPDATE: Just back from the Senedd. Rosemary Butler was elected Deptuty Presiding Officer, as expected. She...
Plaid Cymru activists are plotting to remove the party's only list representative in North Wales to pave the way for Dafydd Wigley to return to the assembly. Despite polling over 50,000 votes on the regional list and taking four of the 13 seats available in the region, many were dissappointed by the way the campaign was conducted. A former Plaid Cymru candidate who stood for election in a North Wales constituency on May 3rd has told this blog that Ms Ryder "will be asked by senior party members in North Wales to stand aside in favour of Wigley." The candidate, who did not wish to be named said: "If she chooses not to she may face an internal party investigation into her conduct in the period before the election and afterwards. It will be made clear to her she does not command the support...
Thought I'd do a bit of post-election spring cleaning. There's been movement in the sidebar, with some candidate blogs moving up to become AM blogs (OK, just the one) and others disappearing altogether.I think it's unfortunate, incidentally, that certain candidates and ejected AMs have decided to delete their blogs. Blogging is, after all, a conversation. And when you're having a chat with someone and it doesn't go your way, you don't punch their lights out and tell them to forgot everything you've ever told them. I would have preferred to see those blogs preserved as relics of the 2007 election campaign. They might have made interesting reading in twenty years time.Never mind, we are never short of new blogs entering the fray. I am now linking to Thoughts of Oscar, Glas, New Welsh Right,...
If you read the Government of Wales Act, really read it, you get the sense that the evolution of the assembly into a law-making body is a practical inevitability. In fact, you get the sense that the legislative purgatory in which the institution currently finds itself is ludicrously arbitrary. When a child begs and begs for an ice cream, you don't snatch it away before it gets a chance to eat the cone.Much depends, of course, on how the assembly deals with its present extension in powers. But given the cross-party will for an assembly which creates proper 'acts', and which does so independently of the Secretary of State, I would be surprised if this wasn't put to a referendum before the next full term begins.If anything, the debate over independence in Scotland has made people realise...
We've just learnt a lot more about what sort of shape the government of Wales might take. Thanks to the BBC, of course.Liberal Democrats aren't keen on a coalition with Labour (no matter what their leader thinks). Back at you, say Labour, who aren't keen on a coalition with the Liberal Democrats either. Neither are the unionist wing of the party sold on a deal with Plaid. Merthyr AM Huw Lewis said he was personally opposed to any outcome which involved Plaid ministers in cabinet.Step forward Lord Dafydd Elis Thomas with yet another option: an 'agreement' between Plaid and Labour in which Plaid AMs abstain on key votes to stop the government from collapsing. What Dafydd-El didn't say was that Plaid would demand a big prize in exchange for sanctioning such a deal. A referendum on further...
The new Welsh assembly meets for the first time tomorrow, and Dafydd Elis Thomas is a cert for the Presiding Officer's chair. Frankly, the chances of him surrendering that seat are about as likely as Charlotte Church naming her baby 'Christian'. But the race for the position of Deputy Presiding Officer is much more open. I've heard the names Jenny Randerson, Gwenda Thomas and Lorraine Barrett floated, though for comedy value I'd like to see Carl Sargeant rise to the challenge.This time around, however, the assembly can't elect a PO and DPO from the same political group. They also can't elect a PO and DPO from different political groups where both or neither have an executive role. In other words, unlike for the last eight years, one of the presiding officer roles has to be taken by...
Haven't you heard? The whole of Cardiff is a two-horse race between Labour and the Lib Dems. At least that's what they will tell you.Laughing in the face of the actual statistics, the Lib Dems argue with some gall that 'everyone knows the Conservatives and Plaid can't win here'. Well, it's news to me, and news to Tory candidate Jonathan Morgan too I'm sure; he'll be devastated to learn he has no chance in Cardiff North despite being 6,400 votes closer to Labour than his Lib Dem counterpart.So, how do they do it? Surely it's not an outright lie? No, even for politicians that would be going too far. Instead, the Lib Dems cheekily use council election results to calculate their graphs, making it look as if they are in second place, whereas they are actually in third. But where they genuinely...
Helen Mary: 'That damn Dafydd Wigley got elected after all. Now I'll never be leader.'Ieuan: 'Snout to be worried about. Look! Either we're hanging from the ceiling or that pig is off the...
What a weekend. I haven't been surrounded by so many dreamy Conservatives since my days at Cambridge:)But with the conference closed, the Tory to-do list is still crammed:- agree a position on upgrading the assembly to a Scottish-style parliament- decide whether to commit to PR in local government- work out how to play Plaid Cymru: the only viable coalition partners- hope Westminster approves the manifesto wish list (it's like a letter to Santa Claus says one notable hack)The Conservatives did a very good job of keeping these debates away from the conference hall. But only the fuddiest of delegates would have left without sensing that this was a bit odd.Make no mistake: behind closed doors these debates will take place. The results could make or break their next five...
Having spent the daylight hours at the Tories' big day out, I can confirm that the biggest talking point is still the free light bulbs.William Hague delivered a good speech. But it was about Mirek Topolanek so nobody cared.Francis Maude revealed the Tories' latest Gordon Brown metaphor: 'the big clunking spider at the centre of the Labour web'. (I wonder how many overpaid speech writers it took to come up with that?)And Shadow Welsh Secretary Cheryl Gillan took a swipe at Rhodri Morgan, the 'Worzel Gummidge of Welsh politics. She also came up with a new nickname for Peter Hain - 'Mr three jobs, one ballroom and an aga Hain'. Can't see that one sticking.Tomorrow: Cameron. After a wet opening day - I arrived damper than a Brynle Williams armpit - let's hope he brings the sunshine with...
Welsh Labour took to the blogs yesterday to promote their internet-only party political broadcast attack on the Tories. Huw Lewis, Leighton Andrews and Rob Newman all proudly linked to the ad, though it still wasn't enough to rouse Carl Sargeant from a four month blogging exile.The video itself is pretty naff: a collage of Tory scare stories from another era flanked by those famous images of John Redwood failing to sing the national anthem. But who owns them? The Redwood footage looks like it's been lifted from another YouTube video, possibly the one you can see HERE. But who really owns that? Not the Labour party, I imagine.Of course, people rip and burn on the internet all the time. But then, we aren't the party of government: representatives who are elected to make laws, not break...
Well, not quite. I've seen the list of Labour candidates and his name isn't on it. But if he were to stand, and if he won the Labour leadership in the assembly, he'd be entitled to 'rule out' a coalition with Plaid Cymru. That's what he did yesterday in the House of Commons in his position as member of parliament for Neath and Secretary of State for Wales. Eh?Has he consulted with Rhodri Morgan? Is this the official Labour party line in Wales? "I don't think there is going to be much of an appetite for it," is all the First Minister's spokeswoman would say, leaving the coalition door ajar.But hang on. If it's been 'ruled out' then the First Minister's hands are tied: a 'can't do politician' if ever there was...
